Wizarding Population Ratios

[OliveOil_Med]

I know that in Britain, we have the statistic that one in every ten people is a wizard. But I also wonder about other countries? What coutries have this ratio and which ones don't What could lead to a difference in ratio? Chine and India each have more than a billion people in their populations. Do you think the wizarding populations of these countries share the same high numbers?

[Inverarity]

Where did you get one in ten? That's awfully high!

I discussed wizarding population estimates in detail in this thread.

[OliveOil_Med]

Where did you get one in ten? That's awfully high!

Hmm, maybe that was a ratio on Muggleborns, now that I think about it.

At any rate, what about the other discussion points?

[Inverarity]

Hmm, maybe that was a ratio on Muggleborns, now that I think about it.

One in ten would mean Britain has about six million wizards. I don't think you could keep the existence of six million wizards secret.

I'm not sure Rowling has ever given a ratio on Muggle-borns.

At any rate, what about the other discussion points?

I discussed them in the linked thread.

[OliveOil_Med]

I discussed them in the linked thread.

No, not really. What I mean is what possible factors could there be for a wizarding population in a certain area of the world to have a higher or lower ratio than another might? When one country has an extremely high population (like China or India) does that necessarily mean that the wizarding population is very high as well? Why or why not?

[Tim the Enchanter]

No, not really. What I mean is what possible factors could there be for a wizarding population in a certain area of the world to have a higher or lower ratio than another might? When one country has an extremely high population (like China or India) does that necessarily mean that the wizarding population is very high as well? Why or why not?

Birthrates and other demographic things come to mind. For instance, I think China (People's Republic, that is) would have a smaller proportional Muggle-born population relative to other countries', because of their One Child law. On the other side of the coin, a country with a higher birthrate like Indonesia or India would have a larger proportion of Muggle-borns, since larger Muggle families increases the already slight chance of magic offspring.

You also must take into account mortality rates in Muggle countries. Since wizards generally live longer and healthier lives than Muggles, I'd expect there to be a greater proportion of wizards to Muggles in impoverished countries like Angola or the Sierra Leone.

Now, J.K. Rowling has said in interviews that the population of magical Britain is about 10,000. So, out of a Muggle population of roughly 60 million, wizards compose a mere .0016%!

With that in mind, you should use that rough percentage for any country, give or take a few fractions of a percent to accommodate a particular nation's Muggle birth and mortality rate.

Just my thoughts...

Tim the Enchanter

[Inverarity]

Now, J.K. Rowling has said in interviews that the population of magical Britain is about 10,000. So, out of a Muggle population of roughly 60 million, wizards compose a mere .0016%!

Which interview did she say that in? I don't recall her ever giving a number like that. It sounds right (since it's about the middle of the range I estimated), but I didn't think she'd ever actually provided figures. (Of course, after her estimate of the Hogwarts student body, I would take any numbers she gives with a grain of salt anyway...)

As for relative wizarding population rates, it depends on whether you assume that the wizarding birth rate is roughly equal to that of the Muggle birth rate in the community they live in. Factors like China's One Child law are not going to significantly affect wizards, nor have much relative impact considering what a tiny fraction wizards constitute of the overall population. But if you assume that in high birth rate countries (like the Middle East and Africa), wizards also tend to have more children, whereas in low birth rate countries (like Japan and Western Europe) wizards are also relatively less fecund, then whatever wizarding ratio you settle on in general (whether it's 1 in 2000 or 1 in 100,000) will apply everywhere.

However, if you decide that wizards are secluded enough from Muggle society everywhere that their birth rates are pretty consistent from country to country, regardless of what the surrounding Muggle birth rate is, then you need to decide what the wizard birth rate is (in terms of births per thousand per year) and calculate the birth rate per country that way.

I think it's likely that wizarding populations will follow the general trends of the country they live in, though perhaps not to the same degree. The high birth rate in the Middle East (particularly Palestine and Israel) for example, is in part the result of a deliberate "population war" in which both sides are literally trying to outbreed one another. Wizards living in the Levant might be completely removed from this conflict, and thus would have much lower birth rates.

Overall, however, I doubt you'd see a huge amount of variation from one country to the next. That is, if you decide, say, that the wizarding population in Britain is on the order of 1 wizard per 10,000 Muggles, then maybe in some countries it's as high as 1 wizard per 9,000 Muggles, and in other countries it's 1 wizard per 11,000 Muggles, but it's not likely it would vary by more than that anywhere unless there was something very unusual going on.

[mudbloodproud]

After much checking and reading, I found this quote from J.K. Rowling interview:

Jo thinks that there are about 3,000 wizards in Britain, though she admits that being specific about numbers is not "how I think." [From the Leaky Cauldron, 2005]

Now, we all know J.K. is NOT good with numbers and figures. I tried to find a quote where she gave a percentage, but I couldn't find one. If anyone can, I would love to read it.

She goes on in this interview to state the number would increase when all the magical creatures, some who appear human are factored in. She also states in this interview she doesn't want to give an exact ratio.

If anyone is interested in this interview, I got it from Lexicon. If you are really interested and can't find the link, PM me and I'll give it to you.

[Tim the Enchanter]

Factors like China's One Child law are not going to significantly affect wizards, nor have much relative impact considering what a tiny fraction wizards constitute of the overall population.

The One Child law won't do anything to affect the established Pure-blood wizarding population, but it would reduce the relative number of Muggle-born wizards compared to countries that do not have such restrictions. If we assume that Muggle-borns constitute 15% of the total wizarding population (I really have no idea what the percentage is - I'm just making up numbers for the sake of example), a country with a low Muggle birthrate would decrease the chances of Muggle-borns appearing. So for this example, China would have a large wizarding population, but Muggle-borns compose a smaller percentage of that total. Because of China's lower influx of Muggle-borns, their wizarding population might actually be smaller in percentage when compared to other countries.

Of course, that only has to do with the influx of Muggle-borns in the wizarding population of any given country. The birthrate of wizards born into the wizarding world could be anywhere from closely following Muggle trends to matching the mortality rate. However, Ron has said several times throughout the series that if wizards hadn't married Muggles/Muggle-borns, they would have died out. So that seems to imply that the wizarding population (of Britain at least) has a low birthrate and depends on the influx of Muggle-borns in order to stay stable. If that is the case, then I think the Muggle birthrate would greatly affect the number of wizards, as it would determine the number of Muggle-born wizards.

Now that we're on the subject of Muggle-borns, I have a question to add:

What percentage do you think each blood-status group comprises of the total wizarding population? (Let's just use Britain as an example)

Tim the Enchanter

[Inverarity]

What percentage do you think each blood-status group comprises of the total wizarding population? (Let's just use Britain as an example)

Rowling said in an interview that Hogwarts' annual intake is about 25% Muggle-borns, 25% purebloods, and 50% "mixed" (half-bloods, etc.).

But those are Rowling numbers, again. 25% Muggle-borns really doesn't sound plausible to me. The wizarding world is too static -- if a quarter of the population was Muggle-born, there is no way all those Muggle-borns would have been content to let things stay the way they are.